A Tale of the Tape: Previewing the 2023 BFB Championship

September 11, 2023

By Frank Piscani (the BFB commissioner, not the BFB manager)

As the 2023 Backyard Fantasy Baseball season nears its end, two league titans are set to face off in the playoffs for the first time ever.

No. 1 Raffy Taffy and No. 2 Who’s Your Vladdy? will meet for a long-awaited championship bout between the league’s only managers with multiple titles to their names.

Raffy Taffy manager Craig MacDonald guided his reigning champion squad to a 16-4 season thanks to a league-leading 23,811.5 points. Who’s Your Vladdy? manager Frank Piscani, meanwhile, finished the regular season second in the league with 22,691 points.

Only four managers have won a league championship since MacDonald joined BFB in 2017. MacDonald and Piscani have each won two titles, with Justin Peña and Louie Gelb winning one apiece.

With two of the league’s biggest titans set to square off for BFB supremacy, let’s take a look at the rivals’ all-time series by the numbers.

Ten to Nine

The 2023 championship will be the managers’ 20th meeting. Piscani leads the all-time series with 10 wins to MacDonald’s nine.

While Piscani has narrowly edged out MacDonald in the 19 meetings, MacDonald has the advantage in points. MacDonald’s squads have outscored Piscani’s, 20,252-19,796.5 over the years.

hot start for MacDonald

The overwhelming majority of MacDonald’s 455.5-point advantage over Piscani came from the teams’ first five meetings. MacDonald set the league ablaze his first two seasons in BFB — including a rookie-year championship in 2017 — and won his first five matchups against Piscani.

MacDonald outscored Piscani by 989 points over those first five matchups, with the closest game being a 66-point win in the teams’ fifth matchup. In their first four clashes, MacDonald outscored Piscani by an average of 230.75.

Close wins and Blowouts

After dropping those first five games, Piscani went on to win three straight against MacDonald — outscoring his rival by 95 points total. With 12-, 60- and 23-point wins in those matchups, the difference for Piscani in those games came down to essentially one or two good pitching starts.

Over the course of the rivalry, Piscani has blown out MacDonald just three times in his 10 wins:

  • 2020 Matchup 4: Piscani wins by 295.

  • 2021 Matchup 20: Piscani wins by 260.5.

  • 2023 Matchup 18: Piscani wins by 256.

MacDonald, meanwhile, has blown out Piscani five times:

  • 2017 Matchup 2: MacDonald wins by 311.5.

  • 2017 Matchup 16: MacDonald wins by 223.5.

  • 2018 Matchup 4: MacDonald wins by 231.

  • 2019 Matchup 18: MacDonald wins by 207.5.

  • 2022 Matchup 5: MacDonald wins by 302.

The closest matchup between the two teams was Matchup 16 of the 2022 season, in which Piscani squeaked past MacDonald with a 7-point victory. Piscani stormed back on the final day of the matchup, outscoring MacDonald 193.5-106 to take the victory.

Key contributors for Piscani on the big Sunday included double-digit efforts from Ke’Bryan Hayes, Gleyber Torres, Willy Adames, Kyle Schwarber, Andrew Vaughn, Bryan Reynolds and Dylan Carlson. DJ LeMahieu and Rafael Devers combined for 47 points for MacDonald, but an overall offensive showing for 65 points doomed his Raffy Taffy squad for the matchup.

The biggest difference-maker on that Sunday though was Rhys Hoskins — with 24 points on MacDonald’s bench.

Highs and Lows

MacDonald’s highest-scoring performance against Piscani was 1,315.5 points in his 2019 Matchup 18 victory. His highest score in a loss to Piscani was the week prior, with 1,211.5 points in a 23-point loss.

Piscani’s strongest performance came in the teams’ most recent meeting, with 1,289.5 points in their 2023 Matchup 18 meeting. In his losses to MacDonald, Piscani capped out at 1,108 points in that 2019 Matchup 18 blowout.

MacDonald’s worst showing came in the 2021 Matchup 20 loss, in which he scored just 816 points. In the teams’ second-ever meeting, MacDonald put up his lowest score in a rivalry win with 979 points.

Piscani’s all-time low against MacDonald was a brutal 740.5-point display in the teams’ first matchup of 2017. His lowest score in a win against MacDonald was 976.5 points in the seven-point victory in 2022.

League COntext

Entering the 11th BFB championship, five managers have titles to their names:

  1. Frank Piscani: 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2021

  2. Craig MacDonald: 2017, 2022

  3. Daniel Hoffman: 2014

  4. Justin Peña: 2018

  5. Louie Gelb: 2020

MacDonald’s two championships stand out with the note that he joined the league in 2017, the fifth BFB season. He’s been a force to be reckoned with year in and year out since joining the league, missing the playoffs just once in seven seasons.

For all his regular season dominance, however, MacDonald has also seen three semifinals losses — each leading to a third-place finish. The one season MacDonald missed the playoffs was a challenging 2021 season — the first with the league’s dynasty format — that saw him finish last and spin the Punishment Wheel.

While 2021 is certainly a dark mark on MacDonald’s record, it also makes his 2022 championship all the greater of a story. A worst-to-first turnaround — followed by a second-straight championship appearance — suggests the last-place finish is nothing more than a fluke for MacDonald.

Piscani, meanwhile, has had a run of ups and downs since winning three of the first four BFB titles. While he’s never had to face a league punishment, Piscani has missed the playoffs three of the seven seasons since MacDonald joined BFB.

Four playoff appearances during that span have yielded two championships, a fourth-place finish and now a third championship appearance for Piscani.

Over MacDonald’s first six seasons in the league, he’s finished in an average final position of 3.167. Piscani’s average finish during that span is 3.667.

Also of note is MacDonald’s 144,649.0 lifetime points over his seven regular seasons in the league which averages to a whopping 1104.19 points per matchup in the regular season. During that same span Piscani scored 141,767.0 points, averaging 1082.19 points per game.

But what about this year?

All 2023 stats are through Saturday, Sept. 9’s games.

It takes a hot team to reach championship glory in BFB, and MacDonald and Piscani certainly have blazing rosters.

The two biggest names to watch are Julio Rodríguez and Trea Turner.

After slower starts than expected for both players, Rodríguez and Turner have been among MLB’s hottest players.

Before the All-Star Game, Rodríguez had a middling 101.5 wRC+, which is not a terrible number, but falls considerably short of his rookie-year 146 wRC+ and the preseason projections that had him repeating with a similar performance. Since the midseason break, however, Rodríguez has battered opposing pitchers with a 181.3 wRC+, which makes him a top-4 qualified hitter over that span.

Trea Turner started the year with a brutal 83.8 wRC+, which he’s turned around for a 146.9 wRC+ since the ASG, and an even better 220.0 mark over the last 30 days — just shy of Rodríguez’s 221.9 performance over the same span. Here’s a look at both players’ lines over the last 30 days:

  • Julio Rodríguez: .384/.410/.768 with 11 HR, 21 runs, 33 RBI and 17.3 fantasy points per game

  • Trea Turner: .372/.423/0.798 with 11 HR, 25 runs, 26 RBI and 15.5 fantasy points per game

Other top players (120+ points) from the semifinals include:

  • RT’s Anthony Santander, 168 points against Acuna Moncada

  • WYV’s Kyle Schwarber, 165 points against Asian Unicorns

  • RT’s Corey Seager, 142 points

  • WYV’s Seiya Suzuki, 141 points

  • WYV’s Gunnar Henderson, 138 points

  • WYV’s Max Muncy, 137 points

  • RT’s Tarik Skubal, 125 points

Rivals, but still trade partners

Despite their statuses as league titans, MacDonald and Piscani have made a couple big trades that figure to make a big difference in this championship outcome.

The Trade:

  • MacDonald receives: $50 Bryce Harper

  • Piscani receives: $61 Mike Trout

Before the 2023 season, the teams swapped sluggers in Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. While on a cheaper contract, Harper faced injury questions coming into the season and Trout appeared to be healthy.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery on Nov. 23, 2022, Harper made his season debut for Raffy Taffy and the Philadelphia Phillies as a designated hitter on May 2, and started splitting time between first base and DH on July 21. Coming into the season, even the most hopeful expectations were for Harper to return by the All-Star break at the earliest.

Harper’s played in 107 games through Sept. 9, averaging 8.3 fantasy points and accruing $6.9 of value according to the YTD FanGraphs auction calculator.

Trout, meanwhile, made it almost through the entire first half before sustaining a hamate bone fracture in his left wrist in early July. The Who’s Your Vladdy? and Angels outfielder missed 38 games before returning on Aug. 22 — after which he immediately returned back to the injured list. In 82 games this season, Trout has averaged 7.8 fantasy points per game and accrued -$12.4 of value.

The Verdict: MacDonald easily wins the deal thanks to Bryce Harper’s stunningly-quick return from TJ. Harper being healthy for the championship and Trout being on the IL boosts the trade even further in MacDonald’s favor.

The Trade:

  • MacDonald receives: $22 Zack Wheeler

  • Piscani receives: $7 Gunnar Henderson and $5 Nico Hoerner

MacDonald and Piscani returned to the trade table with this pitcher-for-hitters deal on May 20. MacDonald solidified his pitching staff with one of MLB’s top starters in Wheeler, while Piscani added a struggling top prospect in Henderson and a solid contact/speed contributor in Hoerner.

On the season, ESPN ranks Wheeler as SP7, thanks to his 1,028.0 points (36.7 average) and $34.1 in value. Since May 20, Wheeler has been a workhorse for Raffy Taffy with his 3.49 ERA, 11-6 record and 192 strikeouts over 170 innings pitched.

In his 40 games before the trade, Henderson struggled to a 100 wRC+ and 32% K rate after a 127 wRC+ and 25.8% K rate over 34 games in 2022. Since the deal, Henderson improved to a 127 wRC+ and has struck out at just a 23.2% clip. His season-long production stands at 1,015.0 points (7.8 average) and $17.3 in value as ESPN’s 3B12.

Hoerner’s production has dropped since the trade, with a pre-trade 110 wRC+and post-trade 98 wRC+, but he’s still overall been very productive in fantasy as ESPN’s SS4 (which I don’t really get considering his primary position based on games played is second base, but ESPN ranks him as a shortstop nonetheless 🤷‍♂️). Hoerner has averaged 8.5 points per game for a season total of 1,129.0 and produced a $25.8 auction value.

The Verdict: This one is more up in the air. Both teams benefitted by drawing on strengths to improve relative weaknesses, and with all three players healthy for the championship, a lot will ride on their performances over the final two weeks.

Henderson and Hoerner have profited relative to their contract values by a combined $31.1. Wheeler has outperformed his contract by $12.1, but the freed-up roster spot has allowed MacDonald additional flexibility.

So in a vacuum this trade benefits Piscani more than MacDonald, but the team context makes it much more of a win-win. With Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, Bobby Witt Jr., Rafael Devers and Jazz Chisholm Jr., MacDonald is loaded in his infield. In a league where workhorse SPs are a scarcity, adding a stud like Wheeler is huge.

Henderson meanwhile has become a key contributor for Piscani’s offense, and his pitching staff remains loaded with names like Gerrit Cole, Spencer Strider, Logan Webb and George Kirby.

Key Injuries

Raffy Taffy’s injuries include:

  • CIN SP Nick Lodolo, 60-day IL, out for season

  • LAD SP Walker Buehler, 60-day IL, out for season

  • NYY 1B Anthony Rizzo, 10-day IL, out for season

  • SD SP Yu Darvish, 15-day IL, eligible to return Sept. 10 but out indefinitely

  • LAA SP/DH Shohei Ohtani, DTD, won’t pitch again (UCL) but return to lineup is uncertain after missing seven games (oblique)

  • MIL OF Christian Yelich, DTD, missed Sunday’s game @ NYY (back)

Who’s Your Vladdy'?’s injuries include:

  • TB SP Shane McClanahan, 60-day IL, out for season

  • NYY SP Luis Severino, 15-day IL, out for season

  • TB SS Wander Franco, indefinite administrative leave, unlikely to play in 2023, possibly ever again

  • LAA OF Mike Trout, 10-day IL, out indefinitely but said he plans to play again in 2023

  • ATL SP Spencer Strider, DTD, pushed back from Monday to Wednesday (illness)

  • NYY OF Jasson Dominguez, DTD, diagnosed Sunday with torn UCL